METHODICAL APPROACH TO PREDICTION OF EFFECTIVENESS BY PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION BODIES’ STRUCTURES IN STATE SECURITY AND CIVIL PROTECTION

Abstract

Methodical approach to prediction of organizational and functional structures of public administration bodies’ effectiveness in state security and civil protection are presents in the article. Actual scientific task of improving of organizational and functional security structures and finding effective prediction’s methods to their functioning are determined. Analysis of recent research and publications on issues of methodological approaches to improve the efficiency of public administration’s systems and organizational and functional security structures was conducted. Differences among the most effective prediction’s methods for the effectiveness of governing bodies and forces of the security and defense sector in general, and a Unified state system of civil protection, – in particular, determining by scientists was established. The article’s purpose is achieved – substantiation of the methodical approach to prediction of organizational and functional structures of public administration bodies’ effectiveness in state security and civil protection. The conceptual and categorical apparatus and the possibility of using expert methods for predicting effectiveness of governing bodies’ structures in state security and civil protection are considered. Expert assessment method can be used to analyze organizational and functional structures and problems, the development of which is not amenable to mathematical formalization, for which it is difficult to develop an adequate model is established. Two most often used prediction’s methods: interviews and analytical expert assessments are determined in this article. The main tasks of the prediction with the help of a team of experts (expert assessments method) are determined. Tasks include the formation of a representative expert group, preparation and conduct of examination, statistical analysis of received documents. Mathematical dependences on quantitative assessment of experts ‘competence, establishing the optimal number of experts in groups, calculating the mean predicted value, ranking of expert assessments of importance, identifying the degree of experts’ opinions consistency, determining the weight level of values of coefficients are given. Expert assessment method can be used to analyze security’s organizational and functional structures and predict the results of their functioning is formulated in conclusions.